Solar project valuation in Italy: the factors behind price per MW

Why price per MW is only a starting point

Price per MW is the most quoted metric in the Italian solar market, and also the most misleading when used alone. Two projects with the same headline price can carry very different connection costs, land terms, permit conditions and expected revenues. A project that looks cheap per MW may require large network works; one that looks expensive may come with land already owned and an advanced connection.

This guide does not give figures: prices depend on the project and on market conditions at the time of the deal. It lists the factors an investor weighs when working out how to value an RTB solar project or any other stage. Read together, they explain most of the gap between two asking prices that look similar on paper.

Development stage

The stage reached is the first driver of value. Each milestone, from accepted STMG to land rights and authorisation, removes a layer of risk. A greenfield project is usually paid by milestones; a late-stage project is priced on the residual risk of the missing items; an RTB project is priced on the basis that construction can begin; brownfield and COD assets are valued increasingly on expected and then actual production. See solar development pipeline stages.

Grid connection and STMG cost

The connection affects value twice: through its cost and through its timing. The STMG cost, a standard field in every Pipeline.Solar teaser, reflects the voltage level, the distance to the connection point and the works required. The estimated days to connection affect when revenues begin. Shared works and grid saturation add uncertainty. See STMG and TICA explained and grid connection timeline.

Land: surface right or purchase

The teaser reports whether the land is offered under a surface right (diritto di superficie, articles 952 and following of the Civil Code) or for sale, with the related costs. A surface right reduces upfront capital but creates a recurring cost over the life of the plant; a purchase works the other way round. Duration, registration, renewal terms and coverage of the connection route all affect value. See solar land lease vs purchase in Italy.

Resource, technology and CAPEX

• Solar resource: irradiation varies across Italy, and with it expected yield. Yield estimates should be read with their underlying assumptions.
• Design: fixed or tracker structures, agrivoltaic configurations and the presence of storage change both cost and revenue profile.
• Expected CAPEX: module and equipment prices, EPC market conditions, site preparation and user works determine the cost to build. The investor's CAPEX assumption is a key input in the price it can offer for an RTB project.
• Development cost: the seller's development cost, a standard teaser field, is useful context but does not by itself set the price.

Revenues, contracts and support schemes

Value ultimately rests on expected cash flows. Investors consider whether the plant will sell under a PPA, take part in FER X, the MASE decree of 30 December 2024 that supports mature renewables through two-way contracts for difference managed by the GSE, or remain exposed to market prices. For storage and hybrid projects, the MACSE capacity procurement mechanism run by Terna and the ancillary services markets form part of the context. Each option carries a different risk profile and affects the discount rate the buyer applies.

Structure, permits and transaction terms

The deal structure also influences price. A share deal transfers the project company with its history and liabilities; an asset deal transfers titles and contracts, which may require consents. Conditions attached to the permit, expiry dates and pending challenges all weigh on value. Payment terms, conditions precedent and the allocation of residual risks are part of the negotiation between buyer and seller.

Comparing opportunities with standard data

Pipeline.Solar registers every project with the same fields: capacity, STMG cost, estimated days to connection, land under surface right or for sale with costs, development cost, PAS filed, PAS approved. This allows a first comparison before the NDA; the valuation itself is the investor's.

A practical approach is to normalise each teaser against your own model: add the STMG cost and land cost to your CAPEX assumption, adjust for the expected connection date and for the revenue scheme you intend to pursue, and only then compare the result with the seller's expectations. Differences that remain usually point to a specific factor worth discussing with the owner once the data room is open.

To receive teasers that match your stages and capacity range per single plant, request investor access or write on WhatsApp. Opportunities depend on the projects available at the time.